Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an absurd 90,677% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either a liquidity trap or data error rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 13 days to expiration and $19.7M in 24-hour volume against $23.6M open interest, the market has adequate liquidity but the zero spread and astronomical yield indicate potential technical issues or a highly illiquid tail position. The 50% price increase over seven days (2¢ to 3¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests late-stage volatility, though the neutral regime score and straightforward resolution criteria offer no obvious catalyst for a German warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz in this timeframe.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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