Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

Scott Wiener is priced at a substantial 66% probability with a notably wide 10¢ spread, suggesting moderate liquidity concerns despite $7.6M open interest and $787K in 24-hour volume. The extreme realized volatility of 863% and inverted yield structure (No position offering 1,485% vs. Yes at 470%) indicate significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, with the market having risen 7¢ over the past week as the June 2026 primary approaches in 44 days. The high information arrival rate of 6.0 events per hour and elevated cliff risk suggest this race remains highly contested and subject to rapid repricing on campaign developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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