Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

The ICJ is priced at a 3% implied probability with an extraordinarily high yes-side yield of 6,792%, reflecting the extreme long-shot nature of the bet and typical pricing dynamics for low-probability events on Polymarket. With $38.4M in open interest and $7.8M in 24-hour volume, this market has substantial liquidity despite the tight 0¢ spread, suggesting active trading interest in what remains a highly speculative outcome. The 174-day timeframe to the October 2026 resolution and stable price over the past week indicate the market has settled on a consensus view that institutional entities rarely win the Nobel Peace Prize relative to individuals or smaller coalitions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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