Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Janet Mills is priced at a significant discount on Polymarket (9¢) compared to Kalshi (8¢), suggesting modest arbitrage opportunity, though the 1¢ spread and relatively thin $678k daily volume indicate limited liquidity for execution. The 3591.6% implied yield on "Yes" reflects extreme mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether the Maine governor will mount a Senate challenge, with the market having risen 2 percentage points over seven days despite 103 days to expiration. The 10 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime suggest this market could experience sharp repricing closer to the primary, particularly if Mills makes any formal announcement regarding her candidacy.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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