Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?

Swayman's Vezina odds have collapsed from 2¢ to 1¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around his trophy candidacy despite minimal trading volume of just $54. The 1¢ spread between Polymarket and Kalshi (which prices him at 3¢) represents a notable cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, though liquidity constraints ($862 open interest) may limit profitable execution. With the 2025–26 season underway and nearly a full year until resolution, the extremely depressed 1% implied probability warrants skepticism—either the market is pricing in significant injury risk or consensus has shifted decisively toward other goaltender favorites.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Vezina Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Vezina Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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