Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $124 in daily volume against $2,635 open interest, creating a wide 22¢ spread and inflated 498% implied yields that reflect thin market conditions rather than genuine opportunity. The 51¢ price has declined 9¢ over seven days while realized volatility sits at an extraordinary 2297%, suggesting sporadic large trades are driving erratic pricing in a market with minimal continuous trading activity. With 73 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the even odds appear somewhat arbitrary given the low information arrival rate of 2.8 events per hour—this is a speculative niche bet better suited for those with strong conviction rather than arbitrage.

Resolution rules

If Marjorie Traitor Greene, or a plural or possessive form of Marjorie Traitor Greene, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade