Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03?

The market is pricing Hurd as an overwhelming favorite at 94¢, but the extreme 7969% implied yield on "No" reflects the binary nature of nomination markets where alternative candidates have minimal individual probability mass. The 19-point rally from 79¢ over seven days suggests recent positive developments for Hurd, though thin 24-hour volume of just $3.1K and a 73% realized volatility indicate low liquidity and meaningful uncertainty despite the high price. With only 72 days to the June 30 primary and a 7¢ spread, this market is approaching expiry and could see sharp repricing if competing candidates gain traction or endorsements.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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