Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Bernadette Wilson's 30¢ price reflects a 30% win probability with an unusually high 430.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant underpricing or speculative positioning given the 198-day timeframe. The market shows minimal liquidity with just $20 in 24-hour volume against $13.6M open interest, indicating a wide gap between committed capital and active trading that could create slippage on larger orders. A modest 2-point price decline over seven days (32¢ to 30¢) and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks strong directional conviction, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable depth at current levels.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade