Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

13¢

Bid/Ask 11/14¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $115.37·OI $9,385.505·Closes Jul 31, 2026·103d remaining

0xa99c78533f4307896fd64726f47e6f0586bd7a1fcb5285aae302ac623962272c

7-day price222 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Mark Lynch's Republican Senate nomination odds have doubled from 6¢ to 13¢ over seven days, though the 2¢ spread to Kalshi (15¢) suggests some pricing inefficiency favoring the Yes side. The extreme 2379% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the low absolute price, but the 892% realized volatility and modest $115 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify moves around upcoming primary developments or candidate announcements over the 103 days to expiry.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 15¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 1043.0%Close-time delta 2295h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2378.9%

IY (No) 53.1%

Adj IY 2379%

CRI 7

RV 892%

VR 1.68

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2378.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	53.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2379%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	892%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.68	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:53:31 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:38:31 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa99c78533f4307896fd64726f47e6f0586bd7a1fcb5285aae302ac623962272c yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →