Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
0xd826bae66455a0b931a6bdabf81f4102c7476409d9ab55b77183e5c8db064f13 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 261 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 494.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.09 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 669% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.58 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 450% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
213 indicator snapshots · 8 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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