Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

Jim Risch commands a dominant 97¢ position on Polymarket with minimal liquidity ($0 24h volume) and a notable 3¢ gap versus Kalshi's 94¢, suggesting either Polymarket overpricing or Kalshi underpricing the incumbent's renomination odds. The extreme 39,803% implied yield on a "No" resolution reflects the illiquidity trap inherent in such lopsided markets, while the 32 Cliff Risk Index flags potential volatility as the May 2026 primary approaches within 30 days. The 1¢ recent price decline and neutral regime score offer no clear directional signal, but the cross-venue arbitrage opportunity and thin open interest of $17M warrant caution for contrarian bettors.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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