Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

Jim Risch is priced at an extremely high 97¢ probability with minimal liquidity ($6.63 in 24h volume), suggesting strong consensus around his renomination but limited trading interest. The No side shows an absurd 36,838% implied yield, a classic sign of illiquidity where tiny positions create distorted odds—the 2¢ spread masks the real pricing uncertainty. With 32 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32, this market appears to be pricing in Risch as the overwhelming favorite, though the low open interest of $16,620 and recent 1¢ price decline warrant caution about whether this reflects genuine market conviction or simply thin order books.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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