Will Nazmul Hassan be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of long-tail political contracts, with zero 24-hour volume despite $11.4M open interest and a 5¢ spread indicating wide bid-ask gaps. The 8,214% implied yield on a 4¢ position reflects the market's assessment of Hassan as a highly unlikely nominee, though the 4,505% realized volatility and recent 300% price surge (1¢ to 4¢ over seven days) suggest either new information arrival or thin-market manipulation rather than fundamental shifts in Hassan's candidacy. With 107 days to the August 4 primary and a 24 cliff risk index, this contract remains speculative and illiquid—suitable only for information traders with specific knowledge of MI-13 Democratic primary dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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