Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 3735% implied yield on "Yes" positions against just 69.4% on "No," reflecting the low 12¢ price and substantial $5.2M open interest despite minimal 24-hour volume of $100. The price has doubled from 6¢ to 12¢ over seven days with realized volatility exceeding 3500%, suggesting either recent news catalysts or speculative positioning ahead of the 72-day expiry. The wide 10¢ spread and elevated cliff risk index (7) indicate thin liquidity and potential for sharp moves if credible pregnancy announcements emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Katy perry announces that she is pregnant between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice. The resolution source will be statements from Katy Perry or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Indicators

Regime

Trade