Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

96¢

Bid/Ask 96/97¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $5.7·OI $10,271.78·Closes May 19, 2026·30d remaining

0xff15ff3bb8f8ecc790e4aa00d40a9eecf0ee5173c9d3dcd66bda645421a34e48

7-day price64 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing Merkley as an overwhelming favorite at 96¢ with tight cross-venue alignment to Kalshi, but the extremely illiquid $10.3K open interest and minimal $5.7 daily volume raise concerns about price reliability. The astronomical 29,524% implied yield on "No" reflects the distorted risk profile typical of thin markets where even small position sizes can skew probabilities, and with 30 days to expiry, any late-breaking primary challenge could trigger sharp repricing. The 80% realized volatility and modest 1¢ spread suggest underlying uncertainty despite the consensus pricing.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 96¢(Δ 0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 7.7%Close-time delta 4047h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 51.3%

IY (No) 29523.8%

Adj IY 29524%

CRI 24

RV 80%

VR 1.13

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	51.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29523.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	29524%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	80%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.13	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:57:21 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xff15ff3bb8f8ecc790e4aa00d40a9eecf0ee5173c9d3dcd66bda645421a34e48 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →