DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple?

The 38¢ price reflects modest DOJ odds despite an unusually high 45.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be underpricing conviction among believers or pricing in significant tail risk. With zero 24-hour volume and only $7,355 open interest, this illiquid market shows extreme 504% realized volatility and a 7.50 vol ratio, indicating price discovery is weak and the 1¢ spread may not reflect true execution costs. The 1,356-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime (0.409 score) provide ample time for information arrival, though the 2 cliff risk index warrants caution on sudden adverse developments in the underlying litigation.

Resolution rules

If District Court for the District of New Jersey finds Apple responsible for any of the anti-trust claims made by the Department of Justice, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade