Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

87¢

Bid/Ask 86/87¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $18.39·OI $12,439.21·Closes Jan 1, 2028·624d remaining

KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is pricing Gavin Newsom as a near-certainty (87%) to run for the 2028 Democratic nomination, yet the extremely asymmetric implied yields—9.5% for Yes versus 358.9% for No—suggest the No side offers disproportionate compensation for tail risk. The minimal 24-hour volume of $11.39 against $12.4k open interest indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges, particularly given the 625-day runway to resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 6.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 27¢(Δ +60¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 105.6%Close-time delta 7449h

Resolution rules

If Gavin Newsom announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9.5%

IY (No) 359.3%

Adj IY 180%

CRI 6

Overround 13.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	359.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	180%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	13.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 1:43:14 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 1:38:50 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →