Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?

The market is pricing a 60% probability of Sanders endorsing Talarico, but the extreme yield asymmetry—111.8% for Yes versus 297.7% for No—suggests significant skepticism about the Yes outcome despite the headline price, indicating potential mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether Sanders will engage in a Texas Senate race. With zero 24-hour volume on $8.6k open interest and a 4¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable; the recent 4¢ decline over seven days combined with a 144% realized volatility and 0.5 info arrivals per hour suggests the market is waiting for concrete campaign developments before committing capital.

Resolution rules

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade