Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?

The market is pricing a 60% probability of Sanders endorsing Talarico, but the extreme yield asymmetry—276% on the No side versus 123% on the Yes side—suggests significant skepticism about execution despite the headline odds, particularly given zero 24-hour volume and thin $8.6k open interest. The price has declined 10% over seven days amid neutral regime conditions, and with 198 days to resolution, the high realized volatility (160%) and modest info arrival rate (0.7/h) indicate this remains a speculative, illiquid market where sentiment may be shifting toward a no-endorsement outcome.

Resolution rules

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade