Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2026. 41 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2999.1% and 267.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2999.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	267.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2999%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	664%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.19	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?

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