Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low 8% probability of Díaz-Canel leaving office before the May 1 deadline, yet the Yes contract shows an extraordinary implied yield of 28,753.9%, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity at the bid.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 8% probability of Díaz-Canel leaving office before the May 1 deadline, yet the Yes contract shows an extraordinary implied yield of 28,753.9%, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity at the bid. With only $3,484.27 in 24-hour volume against $47,124.92 open interest and a 2¢ spread, the market lacks depth to support the theoretical returns, and the 898% realized volatility suggests price discovery is unstable rather than informative. At just 15 days to expiry with a Cliff Risk Index of 12, any breaking news about Cuban political developments could trigger sharp repricing, making this a high-uncertainty market dominated by tail-risk positioning rather than fundamental conviction.
Resolution rules
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26MAY01 yes 100