Will Powell say Restrictive at his Apr 2026 press conference?
KXFEDMENTION-26APR-REST · closes Apr 30, 2026 · 17 days remaining
Price
Last
90¢
Bid
88¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$1.1
Open Interest
$1,065.66
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 296.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 15936.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 7 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 18.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 7968% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
19 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:06:36 PM
About this market
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Restrictive at his Apr 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFEDMENTION-26APR-REST yes 100