Will Ariana Grande release a new song before May 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 17¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in a binary outcome with 42 days to expiry. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of an Ariana Grande song release by May 30, 2026, yet the implied yield on the "Yes" side reaches 530.3%, indicating the market may be mispriced given her recent release patterns and the relatively short timeframe. The modest 1¢ price movement over seven days combined with zero liquidity makes this market unreliable for serious positioning.

Resolution rules

If Ariana Grande releases a new song Before May 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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