How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 30% over seven days to 46¢, suggesting declining conviction that urea fertilizer will exceed $1,100/ton by year-end 2026.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 30% over seven days to 46¢, suggesting declining conviction that urea fertilizer will exceed $1,100/ton by year-end 2026. The asymmetric implied yields (202.6% for Yes vs. 97.8% for No) indicate the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, though the extremely thin liquidity ($14 daily volume, $1.8k open interest) and wide 5¢ spread raise concerns about price reliability and execution difficulty. With 259 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a low-conviction, illiquid market where the sharp recent decline may reflect either genuine fundamental weakness in fertilizer outlooks or simply thin-book volatility.
Resolution rules
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1100 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFERT-26-1100 yes 100