How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
Leader sits at 9% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1000
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Above $1100
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$292
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
106 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000
KXFERT-26-1000
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1100
KXFERT-26-1100
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1300
KXFERT-26-1300
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200
KXFERT-26-1200
Analysis
The current 16% probability indicates traders assess a modest chance that fertilizer prices will exceed $1,100 per ton by year-end 2026. The low probability reflects expectations that prices will remain constrained, likely anchored to current market levels and seasonal patterns typical for the second half of the year. Fertilizer prices are driven primarily by global supply dynamics—particularly production capacity and export availability from major producing regions—and demand signals from agricultural plantings and economic conditions. Upward pressure would come from supply disruptions, geopolitical events affecting exports, or stronger-than-expected crop demand. The contract price ladder shows confidence rapidly diminishes for higher price levels, with only 3% probability assigned to exceeding $1,300. Key upcoming inputs include crop condition reports through harvest season, global fertilizer inventory data, and any major production or logistics disruptions that would shift supply-demand expectations for the remainder of 2026.
- ›Current fertilizer price benchmark relative to $1,100 strike: actual spot and futures prices as of late June 2026 establish whether the market sees 16% as undervalued or reasonable
- ›Global nitrogen and phosphate production capacity utilization rates and any announced maintenance or disruption at major facilities through December 2026
- ›Crop condition and yield forecasts from Northern Hemisphere harvest (August-October), which signal demand for post-harvest nutrient applications and inform 2027 planning fertilizer purchases
- ›Export availability and logistics from key producing regions (Russia, China, North Africa) and any geopolitical or regulatory changes affecting international trade flows
- ›Historical price volatility and seasonality patterns: whether price spikes tend to occur in Q3-Q4 or if summer represents the typical seasonal peak
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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