How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
Analysis
Traders currently assess a 42% chance that fertilizer prices will exceed a specific threshold this year, with disagreement between markets suggesting genuine uncertainty. Fertilizer prices are driven by global supply constraints, energy costs (particularly natural gas for ammonia production), agricultural demand cycles, and geopolitical factors affecting major producers like Russia and China. The upcoming planting season and quarterly agricultural commodity reports will clarify demand signals, while any supply disruptions or energy price movements could significantly shift these probabilities. The 11-percentage-point gap between venues indicates traders weigh different factors—some emphasizing near-term supply tightness, others anticipating price moderation as the year progresses.
- ›Natural gas pricing trends directly impact ammonia and urea production costs, representing 30-40% of fertilizer manufacturing expenses
- ›Global grain planting intentions and soil nutrient depletion data release in coming months will establish demand baseline for Q2-Q4 2026
- ›Russian and Belarusian fertilizer export volumes remain subject to sanctions and geopolitical developments affecting supply
- ›Current inventory levels at ports and distribution hubs determine how quickly prices respond to production changes or demand shocks
- ›Historical fertilizer price volatility during spring application season typically peaks April-June, making seasonal timing a structural factor
Contracts
Will the brent crude oil close price be above $118.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: above $118.99
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >100.99 on May 1, 2026?: $101 or above
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >107.99 on Apr 30, 2026?: $108 or above
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >108.99 on Apr 30, 2026?: $109 or above
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 100.00 and 100.99 on May 1, 2026?: $100 to 100.99
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >109.99 on Apr 30, 2026?: $110 or above
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >106.99 on Apr 30, 2026?: $107 or above
Will the brent crude oil close price be above $114.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: above $114.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above $116.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: above $116.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above $112.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: above $112.99
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >104.99 on Apr 30, 2026?: $105 or above
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >105.99 on Apr 30, 2026?: $106 or above
Will the brent crude oil close price be above $110.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: above $110.99
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1500
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1600
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1300
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1400
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1100
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000