How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
Leader sits at 28% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1000
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Above $1100
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$80
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
192 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000
KXFERT-26-1000
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1500
KXFERT-26-1500
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1400
KXFERT-26-1400
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1300
KXFERT-26-1300
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200
KXFERT-26-1200
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1100
KXFERT-26-1100
Analysis
Traders currently assess a 42% chance that fertilizer prices will exceed a specific threshold this year, with disagreement between markets suggesting genuine uncertainty. Fertilizer prices are driven by global supply constraints, energy costs (particularly natural gas for ammonia production), agricultural demand cycles, and geopolitical factors affecting major producers like Russia and China. The upcoming planting season and quarterly agricultural commodity reports will clarify demand signals, while any supply disruptions or energy price movements could significantly shift these probabilities. The 11-percentage-point gap between venues indicates traders weigh different factors—some emphasizing near-term supply tightness, others anticipating price moderation as the year progresses.
- ›Natural gas pricing trends directly impact ammonia and urea production costs, representing 30-40% of fertilizer manufacturing expenses
- ›Global grain planting intentions and soil nutrient depletion data release in coming months will establish demand baseline for Q2-Q4 2026
- ›Russian and Belarusian fertilizer export volumes remain subject to sanctions and geopolitical developments affecting supply
- ›Current inventory levels at ports and distribution hubs determine how quickly prices respond to production changes or demand shocks
- ›Historical fertilizer price volatility during spring application season typically peaks April-June, making seasonal timing a structural factor
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above $1100↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above $1000↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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