Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

55¢

Bid/Ask 51/56¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $2.76·OI $3,300·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXGOVMENOMR-26-RCHA

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows a notable 6-cent cross-venue gap, with Polymarket pricing Charles 6 points higher at 61¢ versus Kalshi's 55¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or differing liquidity conditions between platforms. The extremely high implied yields (176.7% for Yes, 191.4% for No) reflect thin liquidity with only $3,300 open interest and $2.76 in 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. With nearly 200 days to expiry and minimal recent price movement (50¢ to 51¢ over seven days), this market lacks conviction signals, though the cross-venue discrepancy warrants monitoring for sharper directional moves.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 59¢(Δ -4¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 499.7%Close-time delta 3543h

Resolution rules

If Robert Charles wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 176.8%

IY (No) 191.5%

Adj IY 86%

CRI 1

Overround -0.2%

LAS 0.10

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	176.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	191.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	86%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:15:08 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVMENOMR-26-RCHA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →