Will Chip Keating be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?

8¢

Bid/Ask 7/7¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $131.73·OI $8,776.95·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXGOVOKNOMR-26-CKEA

7-day price133 snapshots · 20 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Chip Keating's Republican gubernatorial nomination odds are priced at a steep 8¢ on Kalshi with an extraordinary 2,444% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting extremely thin conviction in his candidacy. The 1¢ cross-venue gap to Polymarket (7¢) is modest, but the 24-hour volume of just $131.73 against $8,776.95 open interest signals low liquidity that could amplify price swings—notably, the contract has already moved from 4¢ to 7¢ over seven days. With 198 days until the November 2026 close and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with meaningful cliff risk (13 rating) rather than a liquid consensus market.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 8396.3%Close-time delta 3375h

Resolution rules

If Chip Keating wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oklahoma Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2444.4%

IY (No) 13.8%

Adj IY 1222%

CRI 13

Overround 0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2444.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1222%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:19:22 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVOKNOMR-26-CKEA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →