Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward price pressure, declining 13 percentage points over seven days from 61¢ to 54¢, suggesting deteriorating expectations for transit calls exceeding 60 through the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward price pressure, declining 13 percentage points over seven days from 61¢ to 54¢, suggesting deteriorating expectations for transit calls exceeding 60 through the Strait of Hormuz. With 47 days to resolution and extreme realized volatility of 518%, this contract exhibits substantial uncertainty, though the 1¢ spread and $187k open interest indicate reasonable liquidity for a geopolitical shipping metric. The asymmetric implied yields (667% for Yes vs. 920% for No) and high information arrival rate of 3.0/hour suggest active monitoring of IMF PortWatch data and potential shipping disruption developments.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601 yes 100