Who will IPO before 2027?

52¢

Bid/Ask 52/54¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $968.5·OI $46,392.66·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXIPO-26-OPENAI

7-day price167 snapshots · 40 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing a 52% probability for an OpenAI IPO before 2027, but the asymmetric implied yields—125.6% for Yes versus 159.7% for No—suggest the No side offers better risk-adjusted returns at 154%, indicating potential underpricing of the IPO scenario. With 258 days to expiry, the extremely high realized volatility of 221% and a vol ratio of 1.95 signal significant uncertainty, though the modest $1,122 daily volume and tight 2¢ spread indicate relatively thin liquidity for a market with $46k open interest.

Resolution rules

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 131.2%

IY (No) 153.9%

Adj IY 148%

CRI 1

RV 162%

VR 1.47

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	131.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	153.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	148%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	162%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.47	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:58:52 AM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPO-26-OPENAI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →