Who will IPO before 2027?

The Yes position offers an extreme 869.9% implied yield on a 14-cent contract with 258 days to expiry, though this reflects the low base probability rather than mispricing—the risk-adjusted yield of 808% and 1978% realized volatility suggest genuine uncertainty about IPO timing. Volume is thin at $3,930 daily against $7,292 open interest, and the price has risen 40% over seven days (10¢ to 14¢), indicating recent positive sentiment toward an IPO occurring before 2027, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and high cliff risk index (6) suggest the market hasn't fully resolved directional conviction. The 4.30 vol ratio and 0.6/hour info arrival rate point to active repricing around IPO-related news flow, making this a speculative position dependent on near-term company developments rather than a statistical arbitrage.

Resolution rules

If Ramp confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade