Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

30¢
Bid/Ask 23/30¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $500·OI $3,395·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining
KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-AJUD
7-day price40 snapshots · 6 regime
24¢15¢Apr 8Apr 16

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market shows a sharp 7-point price recovery over the past week (15¢ to 23¢), suggesting recent positive sentiment around Judge's 2026 outlook, though the 30¢ current price still implies skepticism about his RBI leadership odds. The extremely high Yes-side implied yield of 647.9% reflects the low absolute price and illiquidity—with only $530 in 24-hour volume and $3,395 open interest, this thin market may not efficiently price Judge's actual probability of leading baseball in RBIs. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract price, indicating limited market depth and potential execution challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

If Aaron Judge leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 650.1%
IY (No) 58.0%
Adj IY 325%
CRI 3
Overround 0.6%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)650.1%
IY (No)58.0%
Adj IY325%
CRI3
Overround0.6%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/17/2026, 2:49:19 PM
Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-AJUD yes 100

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