Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

8¢

Bid/Ask 3/8¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $30·OI $401·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-PALO

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6257% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 8¢ price significantly undervalues Alonso's chances of leading MLB in RBIs—a plausible outcome given his consistent top-tier production. The minimal 24-hour volume of $30 against $401 open interest and a wide 5¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and creating execution risk for any meaningful position. With 189 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market has adequate time for resolution but the neutral regime and recent price recovery from 2¢ to 3¢ suggest underlying uncertainty about Alonso's injury risk and 2026 performance trajectory.

Resolution rules

If Pete Alonso leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6278.4%

IY (No) 6.0%

Adj IY 3139%

CRI 32

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6278.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3139%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:47:19 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-PALO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →