Will William Contreras lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-WCON

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4644.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag indicating the market is severely mispriced or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine probability—William Contreras would need to dramatically outperform his career trajectory to lead MLB in RBIs, a feat typically reserved for elite sluggers. With 189 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative micro-market with minimal real trading activity rather than a serious prediction vehicle.

Resolution rules

If William Contreras leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4660.2%

IY (No) 8.1%

Adj IY 2330%

CRI 24

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4660.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2330%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:43:29 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-WCON yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →