Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

6¢

Bid/Ask 0/5¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $508·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-YALV

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $508 open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 3032% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the very low price rather than a genuine opportunity, reflecting the thin market depth and wide 5¢ spread. At 189 days to expiration, there's sufficient time for price discovery, but traders should expect significant slippage given the negligible liquidity.

Resolution rules

If Yordan Alvarez leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3042.1%

IY (No) 12.4%

Adj IY 1521%

CRI 16

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3042.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1521%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:48:41 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-YALV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →