Will Riley Greene lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-RGRE

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is severely illiquid with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4692.7% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for pricing. Riley Greene would need to dramatically outperform elite baserunners like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to lead MLB in runs, making the 4% probability reasonable on fundamentals, though the extreme yield suggests minimal real capital is backing this contract. With 187 days to expiration, there's ample time for the market to develop liquidity, but current conditions make this unsuitable for serious trading.

Resolution rules

If Riley Greene leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4702.4%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2351%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4702.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2351%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:36:34 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:08:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-RGRE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →