Will Austin Hill be the Kansas Lottery 300 Winner?

Austin Hill is priced at a 3% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 82,368% for Yes positions, suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme confidence in his non-victory among market participants. The contract has experienced a sharp 40% price decline over seven days (from 5¢ to 3¢) on modest volume of $1,211, indicating thin liquidity that could amplify volatility as the May 3rd expiry approaches in just 14 days. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and stark contrast between Yes (82,368%) and No (78.8%) yields suggest this market may be experiencing low-liquidity distortions rather than reflecting genuine fundamental uncertainty about Hill's race prospects.

Resolution rules

If Austin Hill wins the 2026 Kansas Lottery 300, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

Trade