Donovan Mitchell: 25+ points

This market shows extreme yield metrics (1447.7% for Yes, 4575.4% for No) driven by its short 14-day expiration and tight 2¢ spread, though the $4.5K open interest suggests limited liquidity for size. The 65¢ price reflects a reasonable baseline for Mitchell's scoring given his career averages, but the realized volatility of 337% and modest 2-point price movement over 7 days indicate the market has already priced in most uncertainty around this specific game outcome. With only 1.1 information arrivals per hour and a neutral regime, this appears fairly efficient for a near-term player prop despite the headline-grabbing yield numbers.

Resolution rules

If Donovan Mitchell records 25+ Points in the Toronto vs Cleveland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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