Donovan Mitchell: 4+ threes

This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $102 in open interest and volume, creating a highly unstable pricing environment where the 37¢ price likely reflects minimal trading rather than genuine probability consensus. The astronomical 4769% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or distressed liquidity, compounded by the tight 3¢ spread that masks the underlying depth problem. With just 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this contract faces imminent resolution risk, making it unsuitable for most traders despite the superficially attractive odds.

Resolution rules

If Donovan Mitchell records 4+ Three Pointers in the Toronto at Cleveland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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