Atlanta vs New York 2026 1st Round series winner?

73¢

Bid/Ask 72/73¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $37,521.9·OI $156,153.88·Closes May 16, 2026·28d remaining

KXNBASERIES-26ATLNYKR1-NYK

7-day price42 snapshots · 77 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing New York as a heavy 72% favorite with an unusually extreme implied yield of 3,104% on the No side, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity on the contrarian position despite $131k in open interest. Price has rallied 7 cents over the past week with tight 1-cent spreads and moderate $23k daily volume, indicating growing confidence in New York but relatively thin liquidity for a market with nearly a month until expiry. The 2 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime suggest stable conditions, though the massive yield asymmetry warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or a liquidity desert on the Atlanta side.

Resolution rules

If New York wins the Atlanta vs New York 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.2%

IY (No) 3307.3%

Adj IY 1631%

CRI 3

LAS 0.01

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3307.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1631%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/18/2026, 4:56:48 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 4:53:49 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBASERIES-26ATLNYKR1-NYK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →