Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division?

23¢

Bid/Ask 19/22¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $182.42·OI $18,921.88·Closes Jan 25, 2027·281d remaining

KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-CAR

7-day price150 snapshots · 3 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Carolina's probability has declined 17% over the past week (24¢ to 19¢ on Polymarket, now 23¢ on Kalshi), suggesting deteriorating sentiment around the team's divisional prospects. The 4¢ cross-venue gap favors Kalshi's yes side, presenting a potential arbitrage opportunity, though the thin 24h volume of $182.42 raises execution risk. The extreme 553% implied yield on yes reflects the long 281-day timeframe and low base probability, but the cliff risk index of 4 warrants caution given potential mid-season roster changes or injuries that could dramatically shift divisional odds.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 19¢(Δ +4¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 599.3%Close-time delta 519h

Resolution rules

If Carolina wins the Pro Football NFC South Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 553.2%

IY (No) 30.4%

Adj IY 277%

CRI 4

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	553.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	30.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	277%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:10:14 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:08:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-CAR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →