Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 426.0?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above.... This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $487 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $487 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 5¢ spread. The implied yield of 7004.7% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe mispricing or reflects the market's difficulty in pricing such an illiquid contract near expiration (25 days out). The sharp 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 17¢ indicates recent volatility, but with minimal trading activity, this could reflect sporadic small trades rather than genuine conviction about shelter CPI reaching 426.0 by April 2026.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 426.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSHELTERCPI-26MAY12-T426.0 yes 100