Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The market is pricing in only a 14% probability of Trump announcing a 2028 presidential run before year-end 2027, despite 625 days remaining—a notably conservative assessment given his historical pattern of early campaign announcements.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 14% probability of Trump announcing a 2028 presidential run before year-end 2027, despite 625 days remaining—a notably conservative assessment given his historical pattern of early campaign announcements. The extreme 428.5% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests significant underpricing relative to the long time horizon, though the thin $13.47 daily volume and modest $8,760 open interest indicate low liquidity that could amplify volatility. The recent 2-cent price decline over seven days combined with a neutral regime score suggests the market lacks conviction, making this potentially mispriced for contrarian traders willing to accept the illiquidity risk.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01 yes 100