Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

5¢

Bid/Ask 2/8¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $284.7·OI $11,198.397·Closes May 19, 2026·30d remaining

0xb7674b49efd8501f6ebe0d49129c7ef29b0db69660d38752208165a5387966d2

7-day price391 snapshots · 9 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Hudson's odds have collapsed from 7¢ to 5¢ over seven days, now trading at a significant 3¢ discount to Kalshi (8¢), suggesting either mispricing on Polymarket or deteriorating sentiment specific to this venue. The 23,373% implied yield on "Yes" reflects extreme illiquidity and tail-risk pricing rather than genuine probability assessment, with just $284.70 in 24-hour volume against $11.2M open interest—a red flag for execution risk. With 30 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this market is pricing in substantial binary event risk, likely tied to upcoming primary filing deadlines or candidate announcements in the Alabama Senate race.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 8¢(Δ -3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 2116.8%Close-time delta 4047h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 23373.0%

IY (No) 64.7%

Adj IY 23373%

CRI 19

RV 3010%

VR 2.70

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	23373.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	64.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	23373%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3010%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.70	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:54:36 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb7674b49efd8501f6ebe0d49129c7ef29b0db69660d38752208165a5387966d2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →