Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

The Republican position in AZ-01 is priced at a steep discount (27¢) with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 497% for Yes positions, suggesting either significant undervaluation or substantial perceived risk. The 10¢ spread and minimal 24-hour volume of $9.97 indicate severe illiquidity, making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. The extreme realized volatility of 2002% and high vol ratio of 8.59 signal this is a highly unstable market with limited conviction, though the neutral regime and 198 days to expiry provide time for information to settle the pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade