Will exactly 1 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?

The 30¢ price reflects a relatively low probability of exactly one GOP Senate primary loss, though the asymmetric implied yields (498.6% for Yes vs. 68.2% for No) suggest meaningful tail risk pricing. With $30.5K open interest but zero 24-hour volume and a 4¢ spread, liquidity is thin despite the market's 198-day runway, making the price potentially unreliable for large position sizing. The recent 4¢ rally from 23¢ over seven days combined with a moderate cliff risk index of 3 warrants caution—the "exactly 1" specification creates binary outcome risk where outcomes of 0, 2, or 3+ primary losses would all resolve identically against Yes holders.

Resolution rules

If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade