Will Justin Fields be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?

65¢

Bid/Ask 33/59¢·Spread 26¢·Vol $13.51·OI $1,343.51·Closes Sep 15, 2026·148d remaining

KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-KC-JFIE

7-day price140 snapshots · 2 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 499% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 65% implied probability, suggesting severe illiquidity is inflating the contract value rather than genuine underpricing. The massive 26¢ spread and minimal $13.51 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that makes the 65¢ price unreliable, while the 679% realized volatility and recent 11¢ price jump (from 22¢ to 33¢ over seven days) signal this contract is prone to outsized swings on minimal information flow. With 149 days to expiry and a 2.0 Cliff Risk Index, this market will likely consolidate significantly once Patrick Mahomes' injury status or Kansas City's QB depth chart becomes clearer heading into 2026 training camp.

Resolution rules

If Justin Fields is officially designated as Kansas City's starting quarterback for Week 1 of the 2026-27 Pro Football season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.1%

IY (No) 121.1%

Adj IY 106%

CRI 2

RV 679%

VR 3.15

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	121.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	106%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	679%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.15	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.79	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

26¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 4:18:25 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 4:08:15 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSTARTINGQBWEEK1-W1-26SEP15-KC-JFIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →