No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

The market has priced in an extremely high probability (91%) that the BOJ will hold rates steady in April 2026, with the price surging 53 cents over seven days as the meeting approaches. However, the extreme implied yield on the "No" outcome (41,226%) signals severe tail risk pricing, suggesting traders are hedging against a surprise rate move despite the overwhelming consensus for no change. With only 9 days to resolution and relatively modest $2.3M daily volume against $16.3M open interest, the tight 1¢ spread indicates confidence in the outcome, though the 60% realized volatility and 10/10 cliff risk score warrant caution given the binary nature of central bank decisions.

Resolution rules

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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