Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 96¢ yes price implying near-certainty of Valadao's primary advancement, yet the no side offers a staggering 15,634% implied yield—a classic sign of illiquidity and minimal conviction on the downside with only $8,105 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 3-point price rise over seven days combined with a 113% realized volatility and 1.70 vol ratio suggests recent information arrival (1.2/h) has shifted sentiment toward Valadao, though the 5¢ spread and 44-day runway to California's primary leave room for late-breaking political developments to reprrice this heavily skewed market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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