De'Aaron Fox: 4+ assists

85¢mid

Bid/Ask 83/87¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 4, 2026·15d remaining

KXNBAAST-26APR19PORSAS-SASDFOX4-4

7-day price24 snapshots · 3 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes contract trading at 0¢ despite De'Aaron Fox averaging well above 4 assists per game throughout his career, suggesting severe illiquidity is distorting pricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The astronomical 11,820% implied yield on the No side combined with zero volume and open interest over 15 days to expiry indicates this is a dead market with no price discovery mechanism. The 79¢ to 83¢ seven-day movement and 9.45 volatility ratio suggest sporadic, uninformed trades are driving wild swings in an illiquid venue where the spread itself (4¢) represents meaningful slippage.

Resolution rules

If De'Aaron Fox records 4+ Assists in the Portland at San Antonio professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 502.8%

IY (No) 11985.1%

Adj IY 11407%

CRI 5

RV 1933%

VR 8.21

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	502.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11985.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11407%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1933%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	8.21	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	8.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 4:08:45 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 4:08:22 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAAST-26APR19PORSAS-SASDFOX4-4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →