Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Jay Collins is priced at a 5% probability on Polymarket with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 5,710% on the yes side, reflecting the extreme illiquidity and long-dated nature of this market—only $188.75 in 24-hour volume against $15,439 open interest. A 1-cent cross-venue gap exists with Kalshi (4¢), suggesting mild arbitrage opportunity, though the thin liquidity and 121-day timeframe to the August 2026 primary make execution risky; notably, the price has doubled from 3¢ to 5¢ over the past week, which could indicate either genuine information arrival or speculative positioning in this low-volume market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Regime

Trade