Will Andrew Clyde be the Republican nominee for GA-09?

Andrew Clyde is priced at a dominant 88¢ with just 30 days to the May 19, 2026 Georgia primary, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $7,953 in open interest despite the 11¢ spread. The extreme implied yield on "No" (7,473%) signals this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where the high probability reflects limited trading rather than deep conviction, particularly concerning given the 436% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk index indicating potential for sharp repricing as the primary approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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