Houston vs Los Angeles L 2026 1st Round series winner?

36¢

Bid/Ask 35/36¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,174,596.22·OI $1,961,167.24·Closes May 16, 2026·27d remaining

KXNBASERIES-26HOULALR1-LAL

7-day price223 snapshots · 102 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1125% and an implied yield on the Yes side reaching 2484%, suggesting either significant uncertainty about playoff matchup probabilities or potential mispricing. The price has collapsed from 2¢ to 36¢ over seven days with strong volume ($1.17M in 24h), indicating recent information arrival (2.2 events/hour) that shifted sentiment dramatically toward Los Angeles winning. With only 27 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, traders should monitor for further playoff seeding developments that could trigger additional sharp moves, particularly given the elevated cliff risk index of 2.

Resolution rules

If Los Angeles L wins the Houston vs Los Angeles L 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2484.3%

IY (No) 720.3%

Adj IY 2413%

CRI 2

RV 1125%

VR 1.62

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2484.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	720.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2413%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1125%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:00:42 AM

Depth change (1h) -0.1%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:08:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBASERIES-26HOULALR1-LAL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →